Forecast Accuracy Variance Review

Compares forecasted contact volume and handle time against actuals to measure variance and identify opportunities to refine the workforce management forecasting model.

Review Scope and Period Identification

• Review period start date
  The first date of the forecast period being evaluated.
• Review period end date
  The last date of the forecast period being evaluated.
• Queue / skill group or channel reviewed
  Specify the contact queue, skill group, or channel (e.g., Inbound Voice – Tier 1, Chat – Billing, Email – General).
• Forecast model version or run date
  Identify the specific forecast version or the date the forecast was published/locked for this period.
• Reviewer name and role
  Name and title of the WFM analyst or planner conducting this review.

Contact Volume Variance Analysis

• Forecasted total contact volume for the period
  Enter the total number of contacts predicted by the forecast model for this period.
• Actual total contact volume for the period
  Enter the actual number of contacts received as reported by the ACD or contact center platform.
• Volume variance percentage ((Actual − Forecast) / Forecast × 100)
  Calculate and enter the volume variance percentage. Positive = over-forecast; Negative = under-forecast. Values outside ±10% require root cause documentation.
• Volume variance is within acceptable threshold (±10%)
  Confirm whether the volume variance falls within the ±10% acceptable range. If 'No', root cause analysis is mandatory in the next section.
• Intraday volume pattern — did actual distribution across intervals match forecast shape?
  Assess whether the intraday arrival pattern (e.g., morning peak, lunch trough) matched the forecasted pattern, even if total volume was close.

Average Handle Time (AHT) Variance Analysis

• Forecasted average handle time (AHT)
  Enter the AHT (in seconds) used in the forecast model for this period.
• Actual average handle time (AHT)
  Enter the actual AHT (in seconds) as reported by the ACD or WFM platform for this period.
• AHT variance percentage ((Actual − Forecast) / Forecast × 100)
  Calculate and enter the AHT variance percentage. Positive = actual AHT longer than forecast; Negative = shorter. Values outside ±5% require root cause documentation.
• AHT variance is within acceptable threshold (±5%)
  Confirm whether the AHT variance falls within the ±5% acceptable range. If 'No', root cause analysis is mandatory.
• AHT component breakdown reviewed (talk time, hold time, ACW)
  Confirm whether the AHT components were individually reviewed to isolate which element drove the variance (e.g., ACW spike, increased hold time).

Root Cause Analysis

• Primary root cause category for volume variance (if applicable)
  Select the primary driver of any material contact volume variance.
• Primary root cause category for AHT variance (if applicable)
  Select the primary driver of any material AHT variance.
• Root cause narrative
  Provide a concise written explanation of the identified root cause(s), supporting evidence reviewed (e.g., call recordings, system logs, campaign briefs), and any contributing factors.
• Were any known events or exclusions applied to the forecast that were not documented in advance?
  Identify whether any manual overrides or exclusions were applied to the forecast without prior documentation, which may indicate a process gap.
• Supporting evidence or documentation attached
  Attach screenshots, reports, or data exports supporting the variance analysis (e.g., ACD interval report, WFM forecast export, campaign schedule).

Model Refinement and Corrective Actions

• Forecast model adjustment recommended
  Indicate whether a change to the forecast model, parameters, or inputs is recommended as a result of this review.
• Type of model adjustment recommended
  Select all adjustment types that apply based on root cause findings.
• Corrective action description and owner
  Describe each corrective action, the responsible owner (name/role), and the target completion date.
• Target date for model update implementation
  Date by which the forecast model adjustment will be applied and validated.
• Overall forecast accuracy rating for this period
  Rate the overall forecast accuracy for this review period based on combined volume and AHT performance.